Beijing: After the government imposed a 13 per cent sales tax on condoms and other contraceptives, China’s attempt to arrest its falling birth rate has triggered public debate, online mockery and unease among health experts. The decision came into force on January 1, 2026, even as childcare-related services were kept outside the tax net.
The move is part of an overhaul of China’s tax system, under which several exemptions in place since 1994 have been withdrawn. Earlier rules had been designed during the era of the country’s strict one-child policy. Today, the situation has flipped. World’s second-largest economy, China is now struggling to convince people to marry and have children.
Under the revised system, services linked to marriage and elderly care continue to enjoy value-added tax (VAT) exemptions. These measures stand along with other incentives rolled out in recent years, including longer parental leave and direct cash support for families.
Together, they show Beijing’s growing urgency as it grapples with a rapidly ageing population and a slowing economy.
Declining Population, Growing Scepticism
Official data shows China’s population has declined for three consecutive years. In 2024, fewer than 10 million babies were born nationwide, roughly half the number recorded a decade earlier, when restrictions on childbirth were first relaxed.
Against this backdrop, taxing condoms and contraceptive pills has raised alarms. Public health advocates warn of risks ranging from unplanned pregnancies to a rise in HIV infections. The policy has also become a subject of satire online rather than persuasion.
One retailer urged customers to stock up before prices climbed, while a social media user joked, “I’ll just buy a lifetime supply of condoms now.”
Another pointed out that people are well aware of the difference between the price of a condom and the lifelong cost of raising a child.
A 2024 report by the Beijing-based Youth Population Research Institute highlighted that reality, ranking China among the most expensive countries to raise children. The study highlights soaring education costs, intense academic competition and the difficulty many women face in balancing careers with motherhood, all of which push expenses higher.
Economic Pressure, Personal Choices
For many families, economic distress is a bigger factor than the price of contraception. A prolonged slowdown, partly driven by the property crisis, has dented household savings and left young people uncertain about their futures.
A 36-year-old resident of Henan province has one child and has no plans for another. “This is like raising metro fares. If the fare goes up by one or two yuan, people still take the metro. You have to use it,” he explained.
He added that a modest rise in condom prices does not bother him. “Even if a box costs five, 10 or at most 20 yuan more, that is only a few hundred yuan over a year. That is manageable,” he says.
Others see more troubling consequences. A native of the central city of Xi’an worries that higher prices could push vulnerable groups into risky behaviour. “Contraception is a basic need. Making it more expensive could mean students or people already struggling financially start taking chances,” she said.
She called this the policy’s “most dangerous possible outcome”.
Will The Decision Backfire?
Experts are divided over the true intent behind the tax change. A demography specialist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, dismissed the idea that higher condom prices would meaningfully lift birth rates. “Thinking this will boost fertility is an exaggeration,” he said.
He also pointed to fiscal pressures, stating that China is eager to expand its tax base as the housing sector weakens and government debt rises. Last year, VAT revenue alone accounted for nearly 40 per cent of total tax income, amounting to around one trillion dollars.
An expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies described the condom tax as largely “symbolic”. In her view, it reflects Beijing’s determination to signal action in the face of one of the world’s lowest fertility rates.
She also warned of practical hurdles. Many subsidies and family-friendly policies must be implemented by heavily indebted provincial governments. It is unclear whether they have the resources to do so.
She added that public support could erode if people feel the state is intruding too deeply into personal decisions.
Media reports have already fuelled such concerns, with claims that local officials in some provinces have phoned women to ask about their menstrual cycles and plans for children. A health bureau in Yunnan province said such data was needed to identify pregnancies.
“That has not helped the government’s image. The Communist Party struggles to stay out of people’s lives when it comes to major decisions. In that sense, it often becomes its own worst enemy,” she says.
Stressed, Exhausted Generation
Observers and many women argue that China’s male-dominated leadership is missing social changes behind the falling birth rate. Similar struggles are visible in Western countries, as well as in South Korea and Japan, where ageing populations have proven hard to reverse.
Research shows childcare responsibilities still fall disproportionately on women. Beyond that, broader changes are influencing society, including declining rates of marriage and even dating.
Official measures are overlooking the core issue. The way young people interact today is moving further and further away from real human connection. The country is witnessing booming sales of sex toys. It is a sign that many are meeting their needs alone because relationships feel like a burden.
Being online is easier and more comfortable. There is enormous pressure on young people now. Compared to 20 years ago, they may be better off materially, but expectations are far higher. Everyone is just exhausted.
As China searches for ways to reverse its demographic slide, the condom tax has become a lightning rod, raising a question that goes beyond policy tweaks. Can economic incentives and symbolic gestures address the deeper social fatigue influencing a generation’s choices?
About the Author
