For Arne Slott and Liverpool, a miserable October threatens to be followed by a dismal November.
Sunday’s 3-0 defeat to Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium saw them suffer a fifth defeat in their last six league games, leaving their title hopes in early trouble.
“It seems like there are a lot of (defeats),” Slott said in his post-match press conference.
He added: “Our first focus should be on achieving results, and the last thing we should focus on is the title race.”
It all comes on the heels of a summer that saw them bask in the glory of the Premier League title and more than £400 million ($534.96 million) in signings for Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitiki and Jeremy Frimpong.
Here, ESPN reviews the stats and looks at how Liverpool’s unprecedented form has been in recent weeks and how dire their title chances are now. Additionally, is there any chance of finding a solution soon?
How bad is Liverpool’s performance?
It’s been a season of two halves so far.
On the surface, they have enjoyed a perfect start, with seven successive wins in all competitions in a series that has seen them take on Newcastle United, Arsenal and Atletico Madrid.
However, there were warning signs. In every match, barring the 2-1 win over Everton, every winning goal came in the 83rd minute or later, while Liverpool squandered a two-goal lead on three separate occasions.
However, once the momentum shifted, things went south quickly. This was followed by six consecutive defeats to Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Manchester United, Eintracht Frankfurt, Brentford and to Palace (again). Slot’s side broke that streak with a 2-0 win over Aston Villa and a 1-0 win over Real Madrid, but Sunday’s loss to City means their good work has been undone.
Look at the stats, and number 4 comes up a lot.
Since the launch of the Premier League in 1992, Liverpool have suffered four consecutive defeats only three times (1993-94, 2002-03 and 2020-21). They broke that run with a win at home versus Villa.
But their performance away from home is still poor, as they have suffered four consecutive defeats away from home (and seven in their last 10 matches dating back to last season). The club has not had an away record this poor since February to April 2012 under Kenny Dalglish.
Are Liverpool’s title chances already over?
1:03
Ogden: Liverpool made a lot of changes to the title-winning team
Mark Ogden wonders what’s next for Liverpool after the heavy 3-0 defeat to Manchester City.
Ask Virgil van Dijk, and he’ll say it’s too early to look at the Premier League table.
“There’s no point in looking at the table for us, that’s all,” he said.
“I don’t think there’s any benefit for us. If we lost as many games as we did, I don’t think we could look at the schedule at this point, but I’ve been in the game long enough (to know) that seasons aren’t set in November or December.”
However, if he glanced at the table, it would be difficult to bear.
– The slot: A “clear and obvious” VAR foul on Van Dijk
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– Ogden, Lindop: City shows its potential with a distinguished victory over Liverpool
Liverpool’s five defeats left them eighth in the Premier League with 18 points from 11 matches. They are eight points behind leaders Arsenal and four behind second-placed City. This does not appear to be a mountain to climb, though, as history is not on Liverpool’s side, and the margin for error has already evaporated.
According to ESPN Global research, no team has had 18 points after 11 games and gone on to win the title – although six teams have 19 points at this point.
Liverpool’s five defeats could actually be a problem too. Since Arsenal’s Invincibles went unbeaten in 2003-04, only three teams have lost six games and gone on to win the title (Chelsea 2009-10; City 2013-14, 2020-21). The only title-winning team to lose seven titles in one season is Blackburn Rovers in the 1994-95 season.
This means that Slott and his team have no time to waste to turn their season around if they still have hopes of defending their title.
Van Dijk may not be worried about the schedule just yet — “When it comes to March or April time, that’s when it becomes very interesting how everything shapes up there,” he said — but those hopes are already starting to look dim.
According to OPTA’s predictions, Liverpool have only a 7% chance of winning the league (Arsenal are favorites with 63.6%, while City are second with 22.9%).
Why can Liverpool improve?
1:59
Nicole: Arne Slott should be a replacement for Mohamed Salah
Steve Nicol explains why he believes Liverpool’s Arne Slott should be Mohamed Salah’s replacement.
The main reason for Liverpool’s immediate hope does not come on the pitch, but through the fixture list.
Their recent run has seen them face a number of top-half teams – namely Crystal Palace, United, Chelsea and City. This difficult period appears to be over, with five of their next seven Premier League matches coming against teams in the bottom half.
Firstly, they host Nottingham Forest after the November international break before traveling to West Ham. From there, they were promoted to newly promoted sides Sunderland (H) and Leeds United (A) before facing Brighton (H), Tottenham Hotspur (A), Wolverhampton (H), Leeds (H) and Fulham (A).
Also note that the top half teams they face in this round are underdogs Sunderland and Tottenham, whose home form is the second worst in the league so far.
Champions League matches against PSV Eindhoven (H) and Inter Milan (A) are included in this round.
At the top of the fixture list, more playing time together will help with the team’s cohesion after the overhaul in the summer.
