There are 13 games remaining in Week 10 after the Broncos beat the Raiders 10-7 on Thursday night. To prepare for the rest of the event, our NFL analysts have your last-minute preparation needs covered.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three statistical trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody then runs over five players listed in less than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday that could start in a jam. Next up are NFL analyst Ben Solak’s three potential upsets, NFL analyst Matt Bowen’s must-watch headline matchup, and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado’s favorite bet for Week 10. We also asked NFL Nation reporters to answer questions about interesting QB positions around the league.
Will cornerback Sus Gardner be the same player schematically for the Colts? Is there really a fantasy upside down? three Giants players? Can Browns’ Myles Garrett make history against the Jets? How will the Patriots fare in Tampa Bay? And what’s more interesting than JJ McCarthy returning to the Vikings?
We dive into all of it, starting with the trade deadline move that shocked the NFL.
Go to:
Statistics Trends | Fantasy sleepers
Possible surprises Match the key
Best bet of the week | QB Questions
Walder: Three key trends could determine Week 10 winners
Will new Colts cornerback Sauce Gardner play press coverage against Falcons wide receiver Drake London?
Over nine weeks, Gardner ran press coverage 54% of the time, according to NFL Next Gen stats. That’s the second-most snaps at any corner with at least 150 coverage snaps (behind the Chiefs’ Trent McDuffie at 55%). It remains to be seen if that pattern will continue now that Gardner is on the Colts’ staff. For what it’s worth, Charvarius Ward had a presser rating of 34% when healthy with Indy this season, which is significantly lower than Gardner but still 11th.
If Gardner continues to rely on the press, he will pose an interesting matchup against London. The Falcons wide receiver has the league’s highest targets-against-press coverage rate (minimum 150 routes) at 43%. But despite the size, London wasn’t as effective against the press (1.6 yards per route) as it was against regular coverage or out of coverage (2.8).
Will the Bears’ running game still be hot against the Giants?
The simple answer is yes, as everyone is doing well against New York. But apparently so are the Giants especially Arch-opponents of the Bears, who just saw rookie running back Kyle Monangai rush for 176 yards in a Week 9 win over the Bengals.
New York allows 6.4 yards per outside zone to its opponents (worst in the league) and a 56% success rate on outside zones (also worst). These numbers are worse than the Giants’ average against out-of-zone rounds (5.3 and 48%, respectively). And guess who’s running out of the zone at the second-highest rate in the league? Bears 52% of the time.
Will the Chargers be able to stop the Steelers pass rush?
I don’t see how. The Chargers rank 29th in pass block win rate (54.6%), but on snaps without Joe Alt — who is now out for the season after ankle surgery — that number drops to worst in the NFL (51.8%).
The Steelers, who rank third in pass rush win rate (48.1%), were likely among the last teams the Chargers wanted to face immediately after losing Alt. Between TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig, the Steelers can bring relentless heat. Who will stop them? Whatever the combination of Jamari Salyer, Austin Deculos, Trevor Benning, Trey Pipkins III and Bobby Hart the Chargers are, they won’t feel good about this matchup. And it’s not as if interior design is going to have an easy time with Cameron Heyward either. All I can say to the Chargers offensive line is good luck.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and you can start this week
JJ McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings (43.6% rostered)
McCarthy has scored more than 18 fantasy points in two of his three starts this season. Accuracy (57.6%) is still a work in progress, but the presence of wide receivers like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison gives him strong upside. Additionally, McCarthy added value as a runner (16 attempts for two touchdowns).
The Ravens gave the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. With Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Joe Flacco on board, McCarthy is a viable option for the franchise.
1:54
Kirk Herbstreit shares his optimism for JJ McCarthy
Kirk Herbstreit joins ‘The Pat McAfee Show’ and shares his confidence in JJ McCarthy with the Vikings.
Theo Johnson, TE, New York Giants (40.0% rostered)
Johnson has scored five touchdowns in his past six games, including at least 10 fantasy points in four of them. Since Week 6, he ranks second to New York in goals, trailing only Wan’Dale Robinson. Johnson is a playmaker that Dart can take advantage of and should continue to see valuable looks near the goal line. He drew a favorable matchup in Week 10 against the Bears, who have allowed the third-most passes this season (20).
Devin Singletary, RB, New York Giants (30.4% rostered)
With running back Cam Schateppo on injured reserve, the Giants used a two-man backfield in Week 9 with Singletary and Tyrone Tracy Jr. out. Singletary led in touches and yards from scrimmage, handling most of the early work and the goal line. After Tracy appeared to tweak something late in the game, Singletary took over nearly every snap in the fourth quarter.
New York’s backfield remains a timeshare, but Singletary has the most stable role heading into Week 10. Chicago’s defense has also allowed the ninth-most rushing yards this season.
Darius Slayton, WR, New York Giants (27.3% rostered)
Let’s stick with another Giants skill player here, as Chicago’s defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Slayton led the Giants in receiving last week with five receptions for 62 yards, playing a season-high 89% of the snaps. He will continue to serve as the Dart’s primary deep threat with Malik Nabers out for the season. The matchup against Chicago makes Slayton a viable flex option for fantasy managers.
Marcus Mariota, QB, Washington Chiefs (9.2% listed)
Since Jayden Daniels was sidelined with a dislocated elbow, Mariota is now firmly on the streaming radar against the Lions. Detroit allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, including 18.9 to McCarthy in Week 9. Since Washington is a huge underdog, Mariota could see more than 30 pass attempts. He also adds value with his ability to rush.
Solak: Don’t be surprised if…
Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett became the first NFL player to play more than 4 consecutive games
There were 131 players who had four or more sacks in a game, and only three did so twice in a season. In Garrett’s last game, he sacked Patriots quarterback Drake Maye five times. Coming into that game, Maye had a sack pressure rate of 29% and was pressured on 30% of his rebounds. The Jets’ Justin Fields enters this game with a sack pressure rating of 27%, but he is getting pressure on 39% of his dropbacks. It’s possible the Jets could trail in this game, leading to more pass-rushing opportunities late. History is in the cards on Sunday.
Detroit puts something extra on Washington
The No. 1-seeded Lions suffered one of the most embarrassing upsets of the entire 2024 season against the Leaders, who they beat 45-31 in the divisional round in their own bullpen. Quarterback Jared Goff admitted this week that there was “extra motivation” to head to Washington. The leaders’ defense is faltering, and the attack has lost all its energy since last season. If the Lions lead by 21 in the fourth quarter, I wouldn’t be surprised if the entire starting offense goes back to 28.
Browns’ Harold Fannin Jr. leads all tight ends in receiving
A rookie bump after a bye is a real thing for offensively skilled players, and Fannin’s role was already expanding before the bye. I expect offensive coordinator Tommy Reese, who was just assigned play-calling duties, to prioritize getting the ball to Fannin in space and downfield. Even without Gardner, the Jets’ cornerbacks are better than they give credit for. Cleveland’s passing attack will continue through tight ends, and if Brown finds himself trailing, Fannin could be in for a career day.
0:47
Why fantasy managers should pick the Browns’ defense in Week 10
Tristan H. Cockcroft shows why he’s a top spot on the Browns’ defense in their Week 10 matchup against the Jets.
Bowen: A major match worth watching
Patriots quarterback Drake May vs. Bucs blitz coach Todd Bowles
Maye’s 93.2 QBR against the blitz ranks first in the league, but he will face some different pressure from the Bulls’ defensive unit. The Bucs don’t blitz more than most in the league (31.9% rate ranks ninth), but they blitz their defensive backs at a league-high 20.4% rate. New England’s success here will depend on Maye’s ability to identify secondary movement after the snap and apply third-level pressure.
Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 10
New England Patriots +2.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New England has led at halftime in eight of its last nine games, most of them in the league. The Patriots dictate the tempo, occupying third down and playing error-free football behind a young, balanced quarterback. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s offense is down to just 27% on third down over its past three games. This is the worst possible timing against a defense that allows a low third-down conversion rate. New England’s efficiency and structure will carry over to Tampa. The Patriots at +120 appear to be about right as well.
NFL Nation: Quarterback questions
What are you hearing about how Daniel Jones can bounce back from last week’s loss?
One of the things the Colts liked about Jones was his balanced nature. When the Colts got off to an unexpectedly hot start, they never gave up. Now, with the Colts trying to bounce back from a tough loss, the first in which Jones and the offense have been called into question, the Colts are seeing a lot of the same from Jones.
“He was playing for us, and he was the same guy even (when) he played lights out,” coach Shane Steichen said. “And it will be the same this week.” — Stephen Holder, Colts reporter
Will Washington’s offensive game plan change at all under Marcus Mariota with Jayden Daniels? Marginalization?
Not much, considering they have similar styles. Both are comfortable running the ball and running the pass-and-run option favored by offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. The issue for both quarterbacks is how defenses get rid of some of that by playing more man coverage lately.
But there are some differences. When Washington isn’t huddling and moving at a faster pace, Mariota usually likes to go at a faster pace. But the problem this season is that there is a defense that cannot handle quick three-pointers on offense. However, if Washington wants to play faster, Mariota would love to do so. Mariota is also better suited to running from a designed play call rather than scrambling, which is what Daniels will do more often than not. — Joon Kim, Commander’s Reporter
What’s the most interesting thing you heard about JJ McCarthy’s return in Week 9?
McCarthy is consciously establishing himself as a threat out of coverage, whether in scrimmages or off-the-run passes. He scored his second rushing touchdown of the season against the Lions and also attempted 7 of 25 passes when outside the pocket. He has completed only one of those seven, but said this week that competitors “know I have that ability, so I have to be ready when those opportunities arise.” — Kevin Seifert, Vikings reporter
How do you gauge Justin Fields’ grip on the starting job after their farewell?
Maybe not a strong grip, considering that coach Aaron Glenn refuses to publicly confirm that Fields is indeed the starter. Fields, coming off his best game, is expected to start Sunday against the Browns. Beyond that, who knows? Two weeks ago, Glenn was ready to go with Tyrod Taylor, but stayed with Fields because Taylor was scratched with knee soreness late in the week. It makes sense to ride with Fields to get a full-season evaluation before they consider major quarterback decisions this offseason. — Rich Cimini, Jets correspondent
